Introduction
- How to Take a Penalty Shot
Statistics in Motion
- Hans Rosling TED Talk Best Stats (First 5 Minutes)
- How to Not Be Ignorant Multiple Choice Questions (First 8 Minutes)
Multiple Choice Questions
Question 1
Question 2
Question 3
Question 4
How to Not Be Ignorant
- Reversing Misconceptions Ola Rosling (Start at 14:00)
Value of Intuition
- Helps us generalize
- Causes us to jump to conclusions very quickly
- Overvalues our fears
- Causes us to look for causality, and find it
- Gives us the illusion of confidence
Result: Chimps score better than we do on multiple choice tests.
Additional Resources
- My Counterintuitive Weekend
- Gapminder World
- List of OECD Countries
- Hans Rosling: Let my Dataset Change Your Mindset
Assign Yourselves
- Reply to your own Proposal post
- If you have 5 linked sources and strong Purposeful Summaries, assign yourself 5 more sources in your Reply.
- If you don’t have 5 linked sources and strong Purposeful Summaries, assign yourself that task in your Reply.
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Counterintuitive 
-cannot have preconceived notions when doing research on your topic
-make unobjective observations
-preconceived notions can get in the way of us making the right choices
-have a complex idea and descibe it clearly
-you cannot write well if your ideas are not worth expressing
-even though this is a writing course it is a thinking course first
-good thinking and good writing can go hand in hand. Just have a good thought and try to express it as clearly as you can
-allow the world to surprise you so that you can truly feel about what you’re writing and open your mind to new ideas
-most of the time our preconceived thoughts are wrong because we are not educated on everything
-we make our decisions and opinions on what we hear on the news and see on the internet. This does not mean that we know everything if we read about it once
-must gather information from multiple sources to become knowledgeable and succeed
–
Chance, I’m awarding 3 points today wherever I find a unique or well-expressed opinion. You earned yours for these:
-you cannot write well if your ideas are not worth expressing
-allow the world to surprise you so that you can truly feel about what you’re writing and open your mind to new ideas
I hope you believe them to be true, but that’s beside the point. They are worth remembering even if you dispute them. Replies always welcome and encouraged.
3/3
We started class with a discussion on penalty shot statistics. From 36 feet away, every penalty shot is 75% successful. However there is a 98% chance the goalie does not move but do you strike down the middle? We watched a video on the master statistician Hans Rosling. Rosling discussed how he gave out a pretest to his first ever stats class he taught and was surprised that preconceived notions got on the way of actual stats. Being a good writer means you have to be a good thinker, letting the world surprise you and being able to share it. Skewed Info+Intuition= ignorance.
Nick, I’m awarding 3 points today wherever I find a unique or well-expressed opinion. You earned yours for this:
Skewed Info+Intuition= ignorance.
That might not always (probably won’t always) be enough for 3/3, but today it qualifies. Replies always welcome and encouraged.
3/3
-We talked about the odds of making a penalty shot and the fact that nobody kicks it down the middle even though there is better odds. This is because if you kick it down the middle and the goalie does not move you will look like an idiot and never live that down. But if the goalie made a diving save to your shot your teammates can’t possibly be mad with you and think your an idiot.
-We watched a TedTalk of Hans Rosling where he asks challenging questions like which country has a higher child mortality where one was doubled the other. The chimpanzees would score higher than the students because thinking about the problem caused them to bring misconceptions about it and they would have been better off guessing
-High life expectancy are in smaller families while large families have a shorter life expectancy
-Western World: long life in small family…Third World: short life in large family
-In order to be a good writer you have to be a good thinker first
-you have to be willing to take a chance and examine material and reveal what is interesting about it and allow the world to surprise you.
-we answered questions about the world and the results of how little the percentage of right answers was shocking and we usually did worse than the chimps
-Intuition helps us generalize, causes us to jump to conclusions very quickly, overvalues our fears, causes us to look fr causality and find it, and it gives us the illusion of confidence
-The chimps don’t have intuition they just randomly select an answer and they are right usually 1 out of 3 times
Chippy, I’m awarding 3 points today wherever I find a unique or well-expressed opinion. You earned yours not for a particular note, but for overall strength of recording and analysis. I wonder if you’d care to share what was most surprising, most memorable, most rewarding, least boring, about today’s class. Replies always welcome and encouraged.
3/3
-have a well thought out research topic
-We talked about how this class is a thinking course before a writing course
-We watched a TED talk about global trends in health and economics
The value of intuition:
-make quick generalizations
-jump to conclusions very quickly
-look for causality and find it
-our fear takes over
-all of this together gives us an illusion of confidence
We did watch “a TED talk about global trends in health and economics,” Starbucks, but that was far from the point of our watching it.
1/3
Writing is expressing a complex idea simply
People’s prejudices about the world make them do worse than guessing in some tests
Caused by outdated info, sensationalist news, and intuition
Intuition was good for evolution but now causes prejudice
Good rules of thumb
Sharks aren’t dangerous. But most people don’t live near the ocean. It is still low for people that spend a lot of time in the ocean but its higher.
Things get better.
Most people are around the median.
Social change first then rich for countries.
JohnSanchez, I’m awarding 3 points today wherever I find a unique or well-expressed opinion. You squeaked in with this:
“Intuition was good for evolution but now causes prejudice.”
It probably won’t happen again. Competition for excellence in notes is very high in this class. But it’s good enough for today.
3/3
Preconceived notion are often not rational but are not challenged because they are accepted ad the norm.
Having new ideas expressed clearly makes for good writing.
Examine material in a way that provides new insight.
Preconceived come from places like personal bias, outdated world views and news bias, mixed with intuition creates an illusion of confidence.
When guessing usually assume things get better.
StudentWriter, I’m awarding 3 points today wherever I find a unique or well-expressed opinion. You squeaked in with this:
“Preconceived notions are often not rational but are not challenged because they are accepted asthe norm.”
It probably won’t happen again. Competition for excellence in notes is very high in this class. But it’s good enough for today.
3/3
-We all have preconceptions in our research. As shown in the ted talk, the students, as well as the professors, answered incorrectly on the child-death chart because of preconceived notions about the world.
-In order to conduct actual research, we must shed our previous knowledge on the subject. (to a point)
-Writing: Have a complex idea, describe it completely.
-This course was designed to help us critically think and examine, in order to write effectively.
– I also learned today that chimpanzees are smarter than college students
-News outlets, and the old things we were taught are what cause us to have false information, once intuition is added.
——–
-Link 5 sources with strong purposeful summaries
Hey, King, I’m awarding 3 points today wherever I find a unique or well-expressed opinion. You scored with this:
“In order to conduct actual research, we must shed our previous knowledge on the subject.”
And for this joke: “I also learned today that chimpanzees are smarter than college students.”
It might not happen again. Competition for excellence in notes is very high in this class. But it’s good enough for today. Replies always welcome and encouraged.
3/3
“If you don’t know how to pronounce a word, pronounce it loud.” Better to be wrong and sure, than wrong and have no idea what you’re talking about.
Thinking about the problem gave them the wrong answer instead of the right answer because of preconceived notions.
We can easily avoid our wrong headed state, by letting the world surprise you
Writing – Have a complex idea, describe it clearly
You can’t write well without a complex idea, or if your ideas aren’t worth expressing
Learn to examine the material in front of you, clearly to someone before you can write well.
Explain bullshit really beautifully to make it good writing
Be willing to take a chance and examine material to reveal what’s interesting about it. Be open to new ideas. Don’t be so close-minded.
The world keeps changing so that means information changes on whatever topic is out there
Intuition:
Jumping to conclusions, trust fear, find causality when it’s not there, gives us the illusion of confidence
Chimps score better on MC tests than we do
Common misconception, causes us to make choices we wouldn’t normally make
It’s as if you attend class, ignore all the details, synthesize the lessons, and record the morals. Replies always welcome and encouraged, especially from you because you’re not good at replying.
3/3
– Intuition
– Makes people jump to conclusions
– Gives people the illusion of confidence
– Allows people to generalize
– Make quick generalizations
– Fear is very important and you listen to it over other things
– Look for causality, and find it
– Result: chimps score better on multiple choice tests
– Scared of failure and make choices for themselves to seem “less wrong”
– Preconceived notions
– Make people overthink and not realize the simple choice in front of them
– Allow the world to surprise you and share what you just discovered
– Don’t be ignorant about the world
– Personal bias, outdated facts, news bias make people ignorant
– Skewed information + intuition
Misconceptions
– Try to go for the better not the worse
– Rich and poor/ most people are in the middle
– Accumulate wealth and prosperity after we adopt the right social structure
– Small numbers do not represent a global trend
First rate notes, Kedud.
3/3
How to Take a Penalty Shot
to take the best shot we need to know the weaknesses of the other person and know the percentages
the challenge is to take the information we have and make the best decision based on our research
Stats in Motion
Hans Rosling talks about the students he taught at a Swedish Undergrad college
problem was the pre conceived notion ignorance
thought too much and ended up being wrong
deaths from natural disaster in the world have been cut in half since 1900
women have 7 years in school compared to men at 8 by 30 years old
the chimps had a higher percentage and guessed right more than the people of sweden
we develop personal bias by the way we were raised and our surroundings
we use outdated facts to promote our personal bias
news bias doesn’t actually in form of us everyone in the world but rather only big disasters that happen to few
value of Intuition: helps us generalize, causes us to jump to conclusions, our value of fear, causes us to look for causality and find it, and gives us illusion of confidence
result is chimps score better than we do on multiple choice tests
turn intuition into strength
misconception: everything get worse, rich or poor, first rich, then social, sharks are dangerous
rule of thumb: most things improve, one hump, social equality advancement, sharks kill few
First rate notes, Moana.
3/3
How to shoot a penalty shot?
You can shoot left, right, or down the middle. The odds are 57/41- the goalie will go the strong side 57% of the time, the weak side 41%, and will stay in the middle 2%. Which side should you pick? If you pick the middle, and the goalie doesn’t move, you risk looking like an idiot to your team and everybody else watching. If you pick a strong or weak side and the goalie saves it, at least you won’t look as bad as you would if you kicked it down the middle and the goalie didn’t have to move to save it.
Professor surveyed students on Global studies questions. Students got most answers wrong because of pre-conceptions that made them already have views about other countries/continents that were taught to them in school. If they just randomly guessed about the questions they could have done better than they did when they thought about the question. Students tend to associate things that happen in small parts of countries and associate it with whole continents.
examples of notions:
Western world- long life, small family
Third world-short life in large family
AIDS epidemic (only happened in small parts of Africa, associated with whole continent)
Why do we answer questions of off preconceived ideas?
personal bias-where we come from, ideas we are exposed to, limited to one area of the world
the news- doesn’t inform us about normal things happening in the world, but the surprising things
outdated facts
Misconceptions:
Everything gets worse. Rule of thumb: Most things improve- Try going for the conclusion that things gets better.
Rich or poor. Rule of thumb: One hump-don’t categorize people into rich or poor, think of most people as in the middle.
First rich, then social. Rule of thumb: First social, then rich.
Sharks are dangerous. Rule of thumb: Sharks kill few- very small number of people die from shark bites.
writing- complex ideas, simply expressed
What I like best about your Notes, Aeks, is that they aren’t momentary, fragmentary transcriptions of what was said; they’re thoughtful and reasoned, half-digested summaries you manage to make on the fly. Replies always welcome and encouraged.
3/3
How to Take A Penalty Shot
-We are in the World Cup Final shootout
-75% chance to score to win the world cup
-If we miss, we are a failure
-To take the best shot, the player needs to know the percentages, to have the best shot to make the shot
-The challenge is to take on the information we know to make the best decision on which way to shoot
Statistics in Motion
-The Speaker, Hans Rosling is talking about students he taught at a Swedish Undergrad college
-He gave five pairs of countries, and they had to select which one has higher child mortality rates
-They got most of them wrong, he was happy that they don’t know anything, so he can teach them something
-The problem was pre conceived notion ignorance
-They thought about it too much, so they got them wrong
-If they didn’t think about it, they would have gotten more of them write
-Another data example,Rosling gave the example of a changing world
–Generally the trend was small families and long lives, and large families and short ives.
-Western world had the longer life span is what most people have the preconceived notion of
-However these statistic are wrong
-The stats were accurate in 1962, but the world has changes since then, however the world still keeps the same pre conceived notion
-To be a good writer,one needs to be a good thinker
-So this class is a thinking course on top of a writing course
-The world is a surprising place, and to allow information to surprise us, we become good writers
-For many of the multiple choice questions, we as a class were often wrong, due to these preconceived notions
-The chimps had a higher percentage of correct answers then we did because they don’t have pre conceived notions
-We develop these pre conceived notions from schools due to teachers teaching on material from when they were growing up resulting
-The other two skewed information sources on to pop outdated facts are personal bias and news bias
-One way to avoid ignorance, look toward value intuition
-To score better on these type f questions, assume the better outcome
GreenEggs, I’m awarding 3 points today wherever I find a unique or well-expressed opinion. You earned yours for these:
-The problem was pre conceived notion ignorance
-They thought about it too much, so they got them wrong
I hope you believe them to be true, but that’s beside the point. They are worth remembering even if you dispute them. Replies always welcome and encouraged.
3/3
I do believe them to be true after todays ted talk. The moral of the story today, is to not overthink too much
Good for you, GreenEggs. That’s certainly part of the message. The rest is, no matter how much we think, we’re at the mercy of our ingrained bias and upbringing. Objectivity is very hard to earn. Thanks for responding.
36 feet to victory. Taking a penalty shot has a 75% chance of success while at the pro world cup level. In a third of a second, the ball will be at the net. This implies that the goalie does not have a chance. The goalie must predict where the ball will be kicked in order to prevent the goal.
Numbers make this scenario crazy! There are more than I can even type!
There is only 2 % chance that the goalie will stand in the middle of the goal.
Point of story is human nature. People do not want to look like an idiot. So even though the odds are greatly in the favor of kicking down the middle, if the goalie stays in the middle the kicker will be called an idiot for “making it easy” for the goalie.
_______________________________________________________________________________
Counterintuitive!
-Confirming themes for the semester
-Hans Rosling is a dorky old guy with accent.
-He asked his students to decipher the higher child mortality rate between a pair of countries and the answers were not what was expected.
-Random selection by chimpanzees resulted with more correct answers than that of the smartest students within Sweden. This alludes that “background knowledge” actually causes poor answers and shows the true lack of knowledge.
-The world has changed so much through the years but our views of the world have remained stagnant. This poor background knowledge least poor misconceptions.
-No longer fair to look at the world with what used to be true.
_______________________________________________________________________________
How not to be ignorant.
We are asking questions
HAVE A COMPLEX IDEA, EXPRESS IT CLEARLY (sorry for shouting)
Must explain BS super beautifully for it to be considered good.
Examine the world! Allow it to surprise you!
Statistics are scary! “Our truths” or what we consider the truth is very wrong
Planning for the future requires us to know the truth of the present.
Tips for beating the chimps!
-Personal Bias
-Teachers Teach outdated views
-News Bias
-Three sources of skewed information are hard to get around
-Intuition 😮
-Illusion of confidence
——–> Refer to “Value of Intuition” above
Misconceptions
-Everything is getting worse —–> Guess improve instead
-Rich or Poor —–> Most people are in the middle
-First rich, then social ——> First social, then rich
-Sharks are dangerous ——> Sharks kill few
^
Only general rules of thumb, not always the case
_______________________________________________________________________________
Keep an open mind. What is assumed could very well not be true.
Assign 5 sources to my proposal ! 5 purposeful summaries ! Work to be done!
Explain whats good !
First rate Notes, BlackHawk!
Thanks for the joke:
HAVE A COMPLEX IDEA, EXPRESS IT CLEARLY (sorry for shouting).
3/3