Counterintuitive Predictions

The In-Class Exercise

1. True or False. What occurs in the world is not always reasonable, logical, or right. Even so, it might be true. You’ll decide whether the Premises below are True or False.

2. Reasonable or Unreasonable. People act for reasons other than logic; among them sympathy, loyalty, hope, fear, vested interest, greed, and ineptitude. You’ll decide whether the Premises below are Reasonable or Unreasonable.

3. Right or Wrong. Decisions based on logic or reason can be ethical and moral, unethical or immoral. You’ll decide whether the Premises below are Good or Bad, Ethical or Unethical, Moral or Immoral.

Your Predictions

Before hearing about the Mammogram team at Kaiser Permanente Hospital or reading the associated article, respond in three ways to the Premises below.

First: declare whether the statements made appear to be True or False (you could also answer Likely or Unlikely).

Second: declare whether the statements appear to be Reasonable or Unreasonable (or if you prefer: Batshit Crazy, or Not Insane).

Third: Declare the statements’ moral or ethical position to be Good or Bad. (If the statement doesn’t permit a moral judgment, you could still pronounce it a Good thing, or fundamentally Just Wrong.)

Respond in three ways for each Premise.

1. Likely / Batshit Crazy / Bad
2. False / Reasonable / Good
3. Unlikely / Unreasonable / Wrong
4. True / Not Crazy / Right

Of course, in paradise, the Reasonable would always be True and Good, and the Crazy would always be Untrue, and universally recognized as Bad. But we know better, don’t we? At the end of class, return to your predictions. How many of your expectations were met?

The Article

Mammogram Team Learns from its Errors

The Premises

1. Women who find out how many cancers their doctors miss in routine mammograms stop getting mammograms.
2. Radiologists who perform mammograms are held accountable for the accuracy of their readings.
3. A doctor who finds hundreds of tumors in a year and a half, but who misses 10, is almost always fired.
4. Doctors who read only a few mammograms a month are removed from film-reading teams so that they read none at all.
5. Publishing the failure rates of radiologists improves their accuracy to the best the discipline can achieve.
6. The best technique for improving diagnosis accuracy has been adopted by almost no radiology departments.
7. Congress demands that radiologists be held accountable for their accuracy at detecting tumors in mammogram films.
8. The 20,000 US doctors who read breast X-rays are trained to do so; their accuracy is known and tested.
9. The medical profession accepts that, to varying degrees, all doctors make the same mistakes.
10. Doctors who do mammographies follow up with those patients to discover whether their diagnoses were correct.
11. Doctors appreciate knowing whether they missed actual tumors or misread the “shadows and swirls” of a mammogram as a tumor.
12. The “shame” of confronting an incorrect diagnosis is a valuable teaching tool for doctors who diagnose cancers from mammograms.
13. An accuracy rate of 80% in detecting cancers from mammograms is something to brag about.
14. The best doctor to head a radiology department is a squeamish physician who trained as a lawyer and prefers not to deal with patients “and their blood.”
15. Radiology can be tracked well statistically because patients either have tumors or they don’t.
16. When the director of the radiology department discovers a way to improve the accuracy of cancer diagnoses, his method is immediately embraced by hospital administrators.
17. When New York hospitals began to publish their surgeons’ heart surgery successes and failures, the death rate fell by 40%.
18. The falling death rate meant that heart surgeons were doing more careful work.
19. Hospitals that reduce their false diagnoses proudly advertise that they “make 20% fewer errors” than their competitors.
20. Publishing the error rates of mammography radiologists results in an uncertain but significant number of cancer deaths in women who avoid testing.
21. A radiologist who is known to have missed a tumor is likely to have missed a dozen out of 3000 he declared to be tumor-free.
22. Out of those 3000, when 250 were scanned again, and 30 were biopsied, 10 were found to have cancers he had missed.
23. Finding those 10 cancers was reported as a front-page medical scandal instead of a triumph of an enlightened new technique for avoiding missed diagnoses.
24. Many of the 250 women who were told they needed followup were angry.
25. Of the ten whose cancers were missed by the first doctor but discovered in followup screenings, most sued the hospital for malpractice.
26. The doctor who missed the 10 tumors felt he had been treated unfairly, that only 3 of the cancers could be blamed on him, and that his error rate was acceptable.
27. After being fired, he was hired as a fill-in radiologist in five states bordering North Carolina.
28. The radiologists on the terminated doctor’s team supported him, not the hospital, and resent having their work scrutinized and their failure rates published.
29. While some doctors read 14,000 films a year, and others fewer than 500, failure rates are very similar.
30. Doctors who read just 500 films a year get re-assigned to other work since their sample size is too small to determine their accuracy.
31. Doctors who are “fired” from film reading based on low volume are relieved to have the diagnostic responsibility taken from them.
32. Doctors would rather bring a patient back for a second look or a biopsy than miss a tumor.
33. Doctors are much happier to find evidence on the film of a cancer that has “been around for awhile.”
34. Routinely experiencing the shame of missed diagnoses in tests every four months builds confidence in radiologists.
35. Most hospitals send out lists of actual missed tumors or “false negatives” to their radiologists every year so they can study the films they misinterpreted.
36. The Kaiser Permanente department has learned to detect various “presentations” of tumors on film by studying films of actual missed tumors after the fact.
37. In North Carolina, for every two cancers radiologists find, they miss one.
38. If the results at Kaiser Permanente were replicated nationwide, better than 80% of cancers would be found and 10,000 more cancers would be correctly detected each year.
39. False positives are easy to track, but almost nobody tracks false negatives (missed tumors that show up in later mammograms).
40. There is no routine followup for women who, on the basis of their mammograms, are determined to be tumor free.
41. Holding radiologists to a higher standard of competency results in reduced access to quality care.
42. Making failure rates public increases the likelihood of malpractice claims, which in turn drives up insurance rates, which in turn drives good doctors from the field.
43. Having two doctors instead of one review every film improves accuracy and drives down costs.
44. A nationwide 70% effectiveness rate is considered the best that can be achieved practically and politically.
45. Government oversight of physician performance to standardize techniques nationally has actually reduced accuracy.
46. Dr. Adcock, who improved effectiveness in his radiology department by 25%, took himself off the team when his volume dropped.
47. The most conscientious doctors, who agonize over the presence or absence of tumors on every film, are by far the most effective.
48. When they have a choice, women are best served by the doctors who send the largest percentage of women for biopsies because they miss the fewest cancers.
49. The best indicator of whether a doctor is competent to read mammograms is the number of times she’s been sued.
50. A good day for mammograms is Mother’s Day, when many clinics offer free or discounted exams.

The Blind Summary.

When you finish classifying the claims for Truth/Reasonableness/Goodness, in one paragraph, try to summarize the article you have not read. Use the heading “BLIND SUMMARY.”

Now Read the Article.
When you’ve classified the claims and summarized the article, read it and report on anything that surprises you. 

24 Responses to Counterintuitive Predictions

  1. j6128 says:
    March 2, 2020 at 8:51 am

    1 1ikely/ reasonable/ wrong
    2 true/ reasonable/ right
    3 false/unreasonable/ wrong
    4 false/unreasonable/wrong
    5 Likely/reasonable/good
    6 false/unreasonable/wrong
    7 true/reasonable/right
    8 true/reasonable/right
    9 true/reasonable/bad
    10 true/reasonable/right
    11 true/reasonable/right
    12 true/reasonable/right
    13 false/unreasonable/bad
    14 false/unreasonable/wrong
    15 false/unreasonable/wrong
    16 likely/reasonable/good
    17 true/reasonable/right
    18 true/reasonable/good
    19 likely/unreasonable/bad
    20 unlikely/unreasonable/bad
    21 likely/reasonable/bad
    22 true/reasonable/right
    23 true/unreasonable/right
    24 likely/reasonable/bad
    25 true/reasonable/right
    26 true/reasonable/wrong
    27 true/unreasonable/wrong
    28 true/unreasonable/wrong
    29 true/reasonable/right
    30 true/reasonable/right
    31 false/unreasonable/bad
    32 true/reasonable/right
    33 likely/reasonable/good
    34 true/reasonable/good
    35 true/reasonable/good
    36 true/reasonable/good
    37 true/reasonable/right
    38 true/reasonable/right
    39 true/reasonable/bad
    40 false/unreasonable/bad
    41 false/unreasonable/wrong
    42 true/reasonable/bad
    43 true/reasonable/good
    44 true/reasonable/bad
    45 likely/reasonable/good
    46 true/reasonable/bad
    47 true/reasonable/good
    48 true/reasonable/good
    49 false/unreasonable/bad
    50 true/reasonable/good

    Reply
  2. alyse816 says:
    March 2, 2020 at 8:51 am

    Likely / reasonable / bad
    Likely / reasonable / good
    Unlikely / unreasonable / bad
    Likely / reasonable / good
    Unlikely / unreasonable / bad
    Unlikely / unreasonable / bad
    True / reasonable / good
    True / reasonable / good
    False / unreasonable / bad
    Likely / reasonable / good
    True / reasonable / good
    True / reasonable / good
    False / crazy / bad
    False / crazy / bad
    False / unreasonable / bad
    Unlikely / reasonable / good
    Likely / unreasonable / good
    True / reasonable / good
    Likely / crazy / bad
    Unlikely / unreasonable / bad
    Likely / reasonable / bad
    Likely / reasonable / bad
    Likely / unreasonable / bad
    True / reasonable / bad
    Likely / reasonable / good
    Likely / unreasonable / bad
    Unlikely / unreasonable / bad
    Likely / reasonable / good
    Unlikely / unreasonable / bad
    Likely / unreasonable / bad
    Unlikely / reasonable / good
    True / reasonable / good
    False / unreasonable / bad
    Unlikely / unreasonable / bad
    Likely / reasonable / good
    True / reasonable / good
    Unlikely / unreasonable / bad
    True / reasonable / good
    Likely / unreasonable / bad
    Likely / unreasonable / bad
    False / unreasonable / bad
    True / unreasonable / bad
    True / reasonable / good
    False / unreasonable / bad
    Likely / reasonable / bad
    Unlikely / unreasonable / bad
    True / reasonable / good
    Likely / unreasonable / good
    False / unreasonable / bad
    False / unreasonable / bad

    Reply
  3. taxmanmaxwell says:
    March 2, 2020 at 8:53 am

    1. True, unreasonable, wrong
    2. True, reasonable, right
    3. False, unreasonable, wrong
    4. True, unreasonable, wrong
    5. True, reasonable, wrong
    6. True, unreasonable, right
    7. True, reasonable, wrong
    8. True, reasonable, right
    9. False, reasonable, right
    10. True, reasonable, right
    11. True, reasonable, right
    12. False, reasonable, wrong
    13. True, reasonable, right
    14. Ture, unreasonable, wrong
    15. False, reasonable, right
    16. False, reasonable, wrong
    17. True, reasonable, wrong
    18. False, reasonable, right
    19. True, reasonable, wrong
    20. True, reasonable, wrong
    21. True, reasonable, wrong
    22. True, reasonable, right
    23. True, unreasonable, wrong
    24. True, reasonable, wrong
    25. True, reasonable, wrong
    26. True, reasonable, wrong
    27. True, unreasonable, right
    28. True, reasonable, right
    29. True, reasonable, right
    30. True, unreasonable, wrong
    31. True, unreasonable, wrong
    32. True, reasonable, right
    33. True, unreasonable, wrong
    34. True, unreasonable, right
    35. True, reasonable, right
    36. True, reasonable, right
    37. True, reasonable, wrong
    38. True, reasonable, wrong
    39. False, unreasonable, wrong
    40. True, unreasonable, wrong
    41. True, reasonable, wrong
    42. True, unreasonable, wrong
    43. True, reasonable, right
    44. True, reasonable, wrong
    45. True, unreasonable, right
    46. True, unreasonable, wrong
    47. True, reasonable, wrong
    48. True, reasonable, right
    49. True, unreasonable, wrong
    50. True, reasonable, right

    Reply
  4. rose1029 says:
    March 2, 2020 at 8:53 am

    Likely / batshit crazy / wrong
    True / Reasonable / Right
    Likely / Unreasonable / bad
    Likely / not crazy / bad
    True / not crazy / wrong
    True / batshit crazy / wrong
    Likely / not crazy / good
    True / reasonable / good
    True / reasonable / wrong
    Likely / reasonable / right
    Unlikely / reasonable / good
    Unlikely / unreasonable / wrong
    Likely / reasonable / bad
    False / batshit crazy / wrong
    Unlikely / unreasonable / bad
    True / reasonable / right
    Likely / reasonable / wrong
    True / reasonable / wrong
    Likely / unreasonable / bad
    True / batshit crazy / wrong
    Likely / not crazy / wrong
    Likely / not crazy / bad
    True / batshit crazy / wrong
    True / batshit crazy / bad
    True / batshit crazy / wrong
    True / not crazy / right
    True / reasonable / bad
    Likely / reasonable / right
    Likely / reasonable / right
    Likely / unreasonable / bad
    Unlikely / reasonable / bad
    Likely / reasonable / good
    Likely / unreasonable / wrong
    Unlikely / batshit crazy / bad
    Likely / reasonable / good
    Likely / reasonable / good
    Likely / reasonable / bad
    True / reasonable / good
    True /reasonable / good
    Likely / unreasonable / bad
    Likely / unreasonable / wrong
    Likely / reasonable / wrong
    Likely / reasonable / bad
    Likely / reasonable / bad
    True / unreasonable / wrong
    Likely / unreasonable / bad
    True / reasonable / wrong
    True / reasonable / good
    False / unreasonable / wrong
    True / reasonable / good

    Reply
  5. gossipgirl3801 says:
    March 2, 2020 at 8:55 am

    1. False, unreasonable, wrong
    2. True, reasonable, right
    3. Likely, unreasonable, wrong
    4. Unlikely, unreasonable, wrong
    5. False, reasonable, good
    6. Unlikely, unreasonable, wrong
    7. True, reasonable, right
    8. True, reasonable, good
    9. False, unreasonable, not good
    10. True, reasonable, right
    11. True, reasonable, right
    12. True, reasonable, right
    13. False, unreasonable, not good
    14. False, unreasonable, wrong
    15. False, reasonable, wrong
    16. False, reasonable, wrong
    17. True, reasonable, right
    18. True, reasonable, right
    19. True, unreasonable, right
    20. True, reasonable, right
    21. True, reasonable, right
    22. True, unreasonable, right
    23. True, unreasonable, right
    24. True, reasonable, right
    25. True, reasonable, right
    26. True, reasonable, right
    27. True, reasonable, right
    28. True, reasonable, right
    29. True, unreasonable, right
    30. True, unreasonable, right
    31. True, reasonable, wrong
    32. True, reasonable, right
    33. False, unreasonable, wrong
    34. False, unreasonable, wrong
    35. True, reasonable, right
    36. True, reasonable, right
    37. True, reasonable, right
    38. True, reasonable, right
    39. True, unreasonable, right
    40. True, unreasonable, right
    41. True, unreasonable, right
    42. True, unreasonable, right
    43. True, reasonable, right
    44. True, unreasonable, right
    45. True, unreasonable, right
    46. True, reasonable, wrong
    47. True, reasonable, right
    48. True, reasonable, right
    49. True, unreasonable, right
    50. False, reasonable, wrong

    Reply
  6. dupreeh79 says:
    March 2, 2020 at 8:57 am

    1. False / unreasonable / bad
    2. False / unreasonable / bad
    3. True / unreasonable / bad
    4. False / unreasonable / bad
    5. False / unreasonable / bad
    6. False / unreasonable / bad
    7. True / reasonable / good
    8. True / reasonable / good
    9. False / reasonable / bad
    10. False / unreasonable / good
    11. True / reasonable / bad
    12. True / reasonable / bad
    13. True / unreasonable / bad
    14. True / unreasonable / bad
    15. False / unreasonable / bad
    16. False / reasonable / good
    17.False / unreasonable / good
    18. True / unreasonable / good
    19. True / unreasonable / bad
    20. True / unreasonable / bad
    21. True ./ unreasonable / bad
    22. True / reasonable / bad
    23. False / unreasonable / bad
    24. True / reasonable / bad
    25. True / unreasonable / bad
    26. True / unreasonable / bad
    27. False / unreasonable / bad
    28. True / unreasonable / bad
    29. False / unreasonable / bad
    30. True / reasonable / good
    31. False / reasonable / good
    32. True / reasonable / good
    33. True / unreasonable / bad
    34. False / unreasonable / bad
    35. False / reasonable / good
    36. False / reasonable / good
    37. False / unreasonable / bad
    38. True / reasonable / good
    39. True / unreasonable / bad
    40. True / unreasonable / bad
    41. False / reasonable / bad
    42. True / reasonable / good
    43. False / reasonable / good
    44. True / unreasonable / bad
    45. True / unreasonable/ bad
    46. True / reasonable / good
    47. False / unreasonable / bad
    48. True / reasonable / good
    49. True / unreasonable / bad
    50. True / reasonable / bad

    Reply
  7. bmdpiano says:
    March 2, 2020 at 8:57 am

    1. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    2. False/Reasonable/Right
    3. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    4. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    5. True/Reasonable/Right
    6. True/Unreasonable/Wrong
    7. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    8. True/Reasonable/Right
    9. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    10. True/Reasonable/Right
    11. False/Reasonable/Right
    12. True/Reasonable/Wrong
    13. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    14. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    15. False/Unreasonable Wrong
    16. False/Reasonable/Right
    17. True/Unreasonable/Wrong
    18. True/Reasonable/Right
    19. True/Reasonable/Right
    20. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    21. True/Reasonable/Wrong
    22. True/Reasonable/Right
    23. True/Unreasonable/Wrong
    24. True/Unreasonable/Wrong
    25. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    26. True/Reasonable/Wrong
    27. True/Unreasonable/Wrong
    28. True/Reasonable/Right
    29. True/Reasonable/Right
    30. True/Reasonable/Wrong
    31. True/Unreasonable/Wrong
    32. True/Reasonable/Right
    33. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    34. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    35. False/Reasonable/Right
    36. True/Reasonable/Right
    37. True/Reasonable/Wrong
    38. True/Reasonable/Right
    39. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    40. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    41. True/Reasonable/Right
    42. True/Reasonable/Right
    43. True/Reasonable/Right
    44. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    45. True/Unreasonable/Wrong
    46. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    47. True/Reasonable/Right
    48. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    49. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    50. True/Reasonable/Wrong

    Reply
  8. harp03 says:
    March 2, 2020 at 8:58 am

    1. False / Unreasonable / Wrong
    2. True / Reasonable / Right
    3. True / Unreasonable / Wrong
    4. False / Unreasonable / Wrong
    5. True / Reasonable / Right
    6. True / Reasonable / Wrong
    7. False / Unreasonable / Wrong
    8. False / Reasonable / Right
    9. False / Reasonable / Wrong
    10. False / Reasonable / Right
    11. False / Reasonable / Right
    12. True / Reasonable / Right
    13. False / Unreasonable / Wrong
    14. False / Reasonable / Right
    15. True / Reasonable / Right
    16. False / Reasonable / Right
    17. True / Reasonable / Wrong
    18. True / Reasonable / Wrong
    19. True / Reasonable / Wrong
    20. True / Unreasonable / Wrong
    21. True / Unreasonable / Wrong
    22. True / Reasonable / Right
    23. True / Unreasonable / Wrong
    24. True / Reasonable / Wrong
    25. True / Unreasonable / Wrong
    26. True / Unreasonable / Wrong
    27. True / Reasonable / Right
    28. True / Reasonable / Right
    29. False / Unreasonable / Wrong
    30. True / Reasonable / Right
    31. False / Reasonable / Wrong
    32. True / Reasonable / Right
    33. True / Reasonable / Wrong
    34. False / Unreasonable / Wrong
    35. True / Reasonable / Right
    36. True / Reasonable / Right
    37. True / Reasonable / Wrong
    38. True / Reasonable / Wrong
    39. False / Unreasonable / Wrong
    40. True / Unreasonable / Wrong
    41. False / Unreasonable / Wrong
    42. True / Reasonable / Wrong
    43. False / Reasonable / Right
    44. True / Reasonable / Wrong
    45. False / Unreasonable / Wrong
    46. True / Unreasonable / Wrong
    47. True / Reasonable / Right
    48. True / Unreasonable / Wrong
    49. False / Unreasonable / Wrong
    50. False / Reasonable / Right

    Reply
  9. Cleo says:
    March 2, 2020 at 8:58 am

    1.) likely/reasonable/good
    2.) unlikely/ reasonable/ good
    3.)likely/ unreasonable/ bad
    4.)likely/ reasonable/ good
    5.) unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad
    6.) unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad
    7.) likely/ reasonable/ good
    8.) likely/ reasonable/ good
    9.) unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad
    10.) likely/ reasonable/ good
    11.) likely/ reasonable/ good
    12.) likely/ reasonable/ good
    13.) likely/ reasonable/ bad
    14.) unlikely/ batshit crazy/ bad
    15.) unlikely/ reasonable/ bad
    16.) likely/ reasonable/ good
    17.)likely/ reasonable/ bad
    18.)likely/ reasonable/ good
    19.)likely/ unreasonable/ bad
    20.) likely/ reasonable/ bad
    21.)likely/ reasonable/ bad
    22.) likely/ reasonable/ good
    23.) unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad
    24.) likely/ reasonable/ bad
    25.) likely/ reasonable/ bad
    26.) likely/ unreasonable/ bad
    27.) unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad
    28.)likely/ reasonable/ good
    29.)unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad
    30.) unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad
    31.) likely/ unreasonable/ bad
    32)likely/ reasonable/ good
    33.) likely/ unreasonable/ bad
    34.)unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad
    35.) likely/ reasonable/ good
    36.) likely/ reasonable/ bad
    37.) unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad
    38.) likely/ reasonable/ good
    39.) unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad
    40.) likely/ reasonable/ bad
    41.)likely/ reasonable/ bad
    42.) unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad
    43.)likely/ reasonable/ good
    44.) unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad
    45.) unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad
    46.) likely/ unreasonable/ bad
    47.) likely/ reasonable/ good
    48.) likely/ reasonable/ good
    49.) likely/ reasonable/ bad
    50.) likely/ reasonable/ good
    I would assume this article discusses the success and failure rates of radiologists/ doctors who perform mammograms.

    Reply
  10. walmaarts says:
    March 2, 2020 at 8:59 am

    1. Unreasonable, Flase, Bad
    2. Likely, Reasonable, True
    3. Unlikely, Unreasonable, Bad
    4. Likely, Reasonable, Right
    5. Likely, Reasonable, Right
    6. Batshit Crazy, False, Wrong
    7. False, Unlikely, Wrong
    8. Likely, Reasonable, Not Crazy
    9. False, Unreasonable, Bad
    10. True, Not Insane, Good
    11. True, Not Insane, Good
    12. True, Not Insane, Good
    13. False, Unreasonable, Bad
    14. Unlikely, Not Insane, Just Wrong
    15. False, Unreasonable, Bad
    16. True, Reasonable, Good thing
    17. True, Unreasonable, Just Wrong
    18. False, Unreasonable, Immoral (Denying patients with higher death rate)
    19. True, Unreasonable, Unethical
    20. False, Unreasonable, Bad
    21. True, Unreasonable, Bad
    22. True, Reasonable, Wrong
    23. True, Unreasonable, Wrong
    24. True, Unreasonable, Moral
    25. True, Unreasonable, Immoral
    26. False, Unreasonable, Immoral
    27. True, Reasonable, Immoral
    28. True, Reasonable, Immoral
    29. True, Reasonable, Moral
    30. True, Unreasonable, Immoral
    31. False, Reasonable, Immoral
    32. False, Reasonable, Wrong
    33. True, Reasonable, Wrong (Easier for them to diagnose)
    34. False, Reasonable, Right
    35. False, Reasonable, Right
    36. True, Reasonable, Moral
    37. True, Reasonable, Moral
    38. True, Reasonable, Moral
    39. True. Unreasonable, Immoral
    40. True, Unreasonable, Immoral
    41. False, Unreasonable, Moral
    42. True, Reasonable, Moral
    43. False, Reasonable, Right
    44. True, Unreasonable, Wrong
    45. True, Unreasonable, Wrong
    46. True, Unreasonable, Wrong
    47. True, Reasonable, Right
    48. False, Reasonable, Right
    49. False, Unreasonable, Wrong
    50. True, Reasonable, Right

    Reply
    • walmaarts says:
      March 2, 2020 at 9:06 am

      Blind Summary
      Based on the statements provided mammograms have a lot of controversies. All doctors seem to have a similar failure rate and the number of doctors is decreasing because of the bad stigma associated with missed cases.

      Reply
      • davidbdale says:
        March 9, 2020 at 12:22 am

        That’s a perfectly reasonable prediction, Walmaarts. Instead, the article emphasizes how much better doctors get at reading mammograms once the evidence of their failure is tracked and shared.

        Reply
  11. stripedsweater21 says:
    March 2, 2020 at 9:00 am

    1: False/unreasonable/unethical
    2: False/reasonable/ethical
    3: False/unreasonable/unethical
    4: False/unreasonable/unethical
    5: True/reasonable/unethical
    6: False/reasonable/ethical
    7: True/reasonable/ethical
    8: True/reasonable/ethical
    9: True/reasonable/unethical
    10: True/reasonable/ethical
    11: False/reasonable/ethical
    12: True/reasonable/ethical
    13: True/reasonable/ethical
    14: False/unreasonable/unethical
    15: False/reasonable/ethical
    16: False/reasonable/ethical
    17: True/reasonable/ethical
    18: False/unreasonable/ethical
    19: True/reasonable/ethical
    20: True/reasonable/ethical
    21: True/reasonable/unethical
    22: True/reasonable/ethical
    23: True/unreasonable/unethical
    24: True/reasonable/ethical
    25: True/reasonable/ethical
    26: True/reasonable/ethical
    27: True/unreasonable/unethical
    28: True/reasonable/unethical
    29: False/unreasonable/unethical
    30: True/reasonable/ethical
    31: True/reasonable/ethical
    32: True/reasonable/ethical
    33: False/unreasonable/unethical
    34: False/reasonable/ethical
    35: True/reasonable/ethical
    36: True/reasonable/ethical
    37: False/unreasonable/unethical
    38: True/reasonable/ethical
    39: True/reasonable/unethical
    40: False/unreasonable/unethical
    41: False/unreasonable/unethical
    42: False/unreasonable/unethical
    43: True/reasonable/ethical
    44: False/unreasonable/unethical
    45: False/unreasonable/unethical
    46: True/reasonable/ethical
    47: True/reasonable/ethical
    48: True/reasonable/ethical
    49: False/unreasonable/unethical
    50: False/reasonable/unethical

    Reply
  12. nayr79 says:
    March 2, 2020 at 9:00 am

    1. True, unreasonable, bad
    2. Likely, not crazy, wrong
    3. Unlikely, unreasonable, wrong
    4. Okay I guess, reasonable, just okay
    5. Likely, not crazy, good
    6. Likely, crazy, bad
    7. Unlikely, unreasonable, wrong
    8. Likely, reasonable, good
    9. Likely, reasonable, right
    10. Likely, reasonable, right
    11. Likely, reasonable, bad
    12. Likely, reasonable, right
    13. Unlikely, unreasonable, wrong
    14. Unlikely, unreasonable, wrong
    15. Likely, seems right, good
    16. Likely, reasonable, good
    17. Unlikely, crazy, good
    18. Likely, reasonable, good
    19. Likely, crazy, good
    20. Likely, reasonable, bad
    21. Likely, reasonable, bad
    22. Likely, reasonable, bad
    23. Likely, crazy, bad
    24. Likely, reasonable, bad
    25. Likely, unreasonable, bad
    26. Likely, reasonable, bad
    27. Unlikely, unreasonable, wrong
    28. Likely, reasonable, good
    29. Likely, reasonable, bad
    30. Likely, not crazy, right
    31. Unlikely, not crazy, good
    32. Likely, reasonable, good
    33. Unlikely,unreasonable, bad
    34. Unlikely, unreasonable, bad
    35. Likely, reasonable, good
    36. True, reasonable, good
    37. True, crazy, bad
    38. Likely, reasonable, good
    39. Unlikely, unreasonable, bad
    40. Unlikely, unreasonable, not good
    41. Likely, unreasonable, bad
    42. False, not crazy, bad
    43. Likely, reasonable, okay
    44. Likely, unreasonable, bad
    45. Likely, crazy, bad
    46. False, crazy, bad
    47. Likely, crazy, wrong
    48. Likely, reasonable, okay
    49. False, unreasonable, bad
    50. Unlikely, unreasonable, bad
    This article is probably about how inaccurate mammograms are along with how choosing your radiologist could be optimized by looking at how many times they are sued. It probably reveals some unreasonable and batshit crazy form of eye-opening info regarding the subject through things that should be false. Without the specifics, that’s my summary.

    Reply
    • davidbdale says:
      March 9, 2020 at 12:18 am

      Nayr, I love this. And you are right. The article, “reveals some unreasonable and batshit crazy form of eye-opening info regarding the subject through things that should be false.”

      Reply
  13. shaquilleoatmeal2250 says:
    March 2, 2020 at 9:03 am

    False/Unreasonable/wrong
    True/reasonable/wrong
    True/unreasonable/right
    likely/ reasonable/right
    true/unreasonable/wrong
    unlikely/unreasonable/wrong
    true/reasonable/right
    true/reasonable/right
    false/ unreasonable/ wrong
    likely/reasonable/right
    true/reasonable/good
    true/reasonable/good
    unsure/unreasonable/bad
    unlikely/crazy/horrible
    true/reasonable/right
    likely/reasonable/right
    likely/reasonable/good
    likely/reasonable/right
    likely/unreasonable/wrong
    likely/unreasonable/wrong
    unlikely/reasonable/wrong
    true/reasonable/bad
    unlikely/unreasonable/wrong
    likely/reasonable/right
    unsure/reasonable/right
    true/reasonable/right
    True/ unreasonable/ right
    True/ reasonable/ right
    True/ reasonable/ right
    True/ unreasonable/ wrong
    True/ unreasonable/ wrong
    True/ reasonable/ right
    True/unreasonable/wrong
    True/ unreasonable/ right
    True/ reasonable/ right
    True/ reasonable/right
    True/ reasonable/ right
    True/ reasonable/ right
    True/ unreasonable/right
    True/ unreasonable/ right
    True/ unreasonable/ right
    True/ unreasonable/ right
    True/ reasonable/ right
    True/unreasonable/ right
    True/ unreasonable/ right
    True/ reasonable/wrong
    likely/reasonable/right
    likely/reasonable/right
    false/reasonable/wrong
    unlikely/reasonable/right

    Reply
  14. a1175 says:
    March 2, 2020 at 9:04 am

    1. True, reasonable, wrong
    2. True, reasonable, right
    3. True, reasonable, right
    4. False, unreasonable, wrong
    5. True, reasonable, right
    6. True, reasonable, right
    7. True, reasonable, right
    8. True, reasonable, right
    9. True, unreasonable, wrong
    10. False, reasonable, right
    11. True, reasonable, right
    12. True, reasonable, right
    13. False, unreasonable, wrong
    14. False, batshit crazy, wrong
    15. True, reasonable, right
    16. False, reasonable, right
    17. True, reasonable, right
    18. False, unreasonable, wrong
    19. True, reasonable, right
    20. True, reasonable, wrong
    21. True, reasonable, right
    22. True, unreasonable, wrong
    23. True, reasonable, right
    24. True, reasonable, right
    25. True, reasonable, right
    26. True, unreasonable, wrong
    27. True, reasonable, wrong
    28. False, reasonable, wrong
    29. False, unreasonable, wrong
    30. True, reasonable, right
    31. False, reasonable, wrong
    32. True, reasonable, right
    33. True, reasonable, right
    34. False, unreasonable, wrong
    35. False, reasonable, right
    36. True, reasonable, right
    37. False, unreasonable, wrong
    38. True, reasonable, right
    39. False, unreasonable, wrong
    40. True, unreasonable, wrong
    41. False, unreasonable, wrong
    42. False, reasonable, wrong
    43. True, reasonable, right
    44. False, unreasonable, wrong
    45. False, unreasonable, wrong
    46. False, unreasonable, wrong
    47. false, reasonable, right
    48. False, reasonable, wrong
    49. False, reasonable, right
    50. False, unreasonable, right
    This article seems to talk about mammograms and the likely hood that doctors find their patients tumors. It also talks about what doctors do when their diagnosis’ are wrong and how they react to their mistakes. It shows that one false move could ruin the rest of their careers.

    Reply
  15. gossipgirl3801 says:
    March 2, 2020 at 9:08 am

    BLIND SUMMARY: I predict this article is about how doctors are getting in trouble and even sued due to missing tumors in mammograms. This article goes against the doctors and are with the patients that were wronged by the doctors. It is a way to show why women are missing their mammograms or don’t believe them because of the number of missed tumors. This article also goes to show just how much impact that one bad review and keeping score has on a doctor’s career. It uses lots of percentages and facts to persuade us into thinking that doctors reviewing mammograms make a lot of mistakes.

    Reply
    • davidbdale says:
      March 9, 2020 at 12:20 am

      A lot of what you say is absolutely true. But as you may know by now, the focus is on how much better doctors get at reading mammograms once the evidence of their failure is tracked and shared.

      Reply
  16. harp03 says:
    March 2, 2020 at 9:14 am

    BLIND SUMMARY

    Doctors are fired and scorned by their bosses and peers, or shunned by their former patients, for misdiagnosing cancer in women. In this unfortunate world, doctors are more likely to put in the time and effort to get more accurate results, not for the patient’s sake, but for their own. Reviews are given, and results and statistics can be easily found, so doctors get a bad reputation for just one poor diagnosis. Therefore, doctors would much rather have an easy cancer case to identify, or a cancer that has already been identified) so that their reputation is not ruined! It is always worth going back for routine check-ups in order to get more accurate results.

    Reply
    • davidbdale says:
      March 9, 2020 at 12:21 am

      It appears the anecdote I shared with you about Yelp reviews for doctors influenced your reading. I understand why, but I didn’t intend it. Instead, the article emphasizes how much better doctors get at reading mammograms once the evidence of their failure is tracked and shared.

      Reply
  17. omgmafia says:
    March 2, 2020 at 9:16 am

    1. Likely / Reasonable / Bad
    2. Likely / Reasonable / Bad
    3. Unlikely / Reasonable / Bad
    4. Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
    5. Likely / Reasonable / Good
    6. Unlikely / Reasonable / Bad
    7. Likely / Reasonable / Good
    8. Likely / Reasonable / Good
    9. Likely / Unreasonable / Bad
    10. Likely / Reasonable / Good
    11. Likely / Reasonable / Good
    12. Likely / Reasonable / Bad
    13. Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
    14. Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
    15. Likely / Reasonable / Bad
    16. Likely / Reasonable / Good
    17. Likely / Reasonable / Good
    18. Likely / Reasonable / Good
    19. Likely / Reasonable / Good
    20. Likely / Reasonable / Bad
    21. Likely / Reasonable / Bad
    22. Likely / Unreasonable / Bad
    23. Likely / Reasonable / Bad
    24. Likely / Reasonable / Bad
    25. Unlikely / Reasonable / Bad
    26. Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
    27. Unlikely / Reasonable / Bad
    28. Likely / Reasonable / Good
    29. Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
    30. Unlikely / Reasonable / Bad
    31. Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
    32. Likely / Reasonable / Good
    33. Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
    34. Unlikely / Reasonable / Bad
    35. Likely / Reasonable / Good
    36. Likely / Reasonable / Good
    37. Unlikely / Reasonable / Bad
    38. Unlikely / Reasonable / Bad
    39. Likely / Reasonable / Bad
    40. Likely / Unreasonable / Bad
    41. Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
    42. Unlikely / Reasonable / Bad
    43. Likely / Reasonable / Good
    44. Likely / Unreasonable / Bad
    45. Likely / Reasonable / Bad
    46. Unlikely / Reasonable / Bad
    47. Likely / Reasonable / Good
    48. Likely / Reasonable / Good
    49. Likely / Reasonable / Bad
    50. Likely / Unreasonable / Good

    Reply
  18. samtheman1448 says:
    March 8, 2020 at 9:16 pm

    1. False, unreasonable, wrong
    2. True, reasonable, right
    3. Likely, unreasonable, wrong
    4. Unlikely, unreasonable, wrong
    5. False, reasonable, good
    6. Unlikely, unreasonable, wrong
    7. True, reasonable, right
    8. True, reasonable, good
    9. False, unreasonable, not good
    10. True, reasonable, right
    11. True, reasonable, right
    12. True, reasonable, right
    13. False, unreasonable, not good
    14. False, unreasonable, wrong
    15. False, reasonable, wrong
    16. False, reasonable, wrong
    17. True, reasonable, right
    18. True, reasonable, right
    19. True, unreasonable, right
    20. True, reasonable, right
    21. True, reasonable, right
    22. True, unreasonable, right
    23. True, unreasonable, right
    24. True, reasonable, right
    25. True, reasonable, right
    26. True, reasonable, right
    27. True, reasonable, right
    28. True, reasonable, right
    29. True, unreasonable, right
    30. True, unreasonable, right
    31. True, reasonable, wrong
    32. True, reasonable, right
    33. False, unreasonable, wrong
    34. False, unreasonable, wrong
    35. True, reasonable, right
    36. True, reasonable, right
    37. True, reasonable, right
    38. True, reasonable, right
    39. True, unreasonable, right
    40. True, unreasonable, right
    41. True, unreasonable, right
    42. True, unreasonable, right
    43. True, reasonable, right
    44. True, unreasonable, right
    45. True, unreasonable, right
    46. True, reasonable, wrong
    47. True, reasonable, right
    48. True, reasonable, right
    49. True, unreasonable, right
    50. False, reasonable, wrong

    Reply

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