Riddle: Card Hypothesis
Housekeeping
- Please remind me when I fail to enable Replies to Agenda pages.
- Tasks can always be found under the Non-Portfolio or Portfolio menus.
- Agenda pages, not the Course Outline, are the reliable source of scheduled classroom activities (and accurate records of what was covered).
A Good Hypothesis Described
- Essay writing is like the scientific process, designed to test hypotheses with experiments, not prove preconceptions.
- Research is the targeted search for evidence to test a hypothesis.
- “Analyze Data and Draw Conclusions” (not “Prove Hypothesis”) is the last step.
A Good Hypothesis Illustrated
- USAID tested the theory that direct aid to the poor would improve childhood nutrition more than trying to engineer nutrition programs for them, on the theory that the poor know what to do; they simply lack the resources.
- Link to the “Give Directly” article
- Link to Give Directly‘s website
Writing Workshop: Objectivity
Tasks
- Catch up on My Hypothesis if you haven’t written one you’re proud of.
- Catch up on Purposeful Summary if you haven’t written three you’re proud of.
- Catch up on Replies to your classmates’ My Hypothesis posts if you haven’t published three you’re proud of.
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Counterintuitive 
We talked about a hypothesis of which letter card was associated to a certain number on the other side.
We also talked about housekeeping, assignments and such
Assignments for next monday is to catch up on what we fell behind on.
We talked about the “Give Directly” hypothesis to see if people are wasting money on programs to give to the poor. The hypothesis failed, but that does not mean the program is a failure. It is just showing that a certain method does not work.
Continued
It’s almost impossible to say what the true context of the video is. Yes, there is a man lying on the floor, but who is he? Is he really dead? Is the cause of his supposed death a virus? For this video, we cannot be objective because there is no confirmed information that follows with this video.
Class Notes 02/12/2020
Card Flip Riddle:
-Red and Blue could prove/disprove a hypothesis because it does not matter what is on the other side of the green or yellow
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Remind Professor to unlock replies if he has not already done so
Check the AGENDA pages (top left in ribbon bar at top of page) to find all assigned tasks
Tasks = In non-portfolio + portfolio tabs
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Hypothesis:
-Draw conclusions (not trying to prove a hypothesis, it could be “proved true or false”)
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Rwanda Situation:
-People do not typically want to give poor people money because they assume they will not properly use it
-$1 million was donated to help people in villages, but at the end of the year, $1000 spend per person only earned each person $500 dollars at the end of the year
3 Groups:
Group 1: Control group (received no help)
Group 2: Received attention from nutrition and hygiene programs
Group 3: Given $500
At the end, none of the experiments helped the situation
-BUT IT WAS A SUCCESSFUL experiment because they learned what did/did not work from it
-They proved that it did not work
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Discussion Questions found in the replies of the link above “Hypothesis Illustrated”
Coronavirus Video:
-Even while trying to objectively describe the video, we relied on the video’s predetermined information
-Two people in white protective suits and gloves are showing interest in a body lying on his back on the ground in China
continued…
-it is incredibly difficult to say who they took away
-judgements
I think it would be unlikely we could be completely objective because the story would not even replicate anything close to what the video portrayed if we could not infer.
What happened
Card hypothesis
Housekeeping
Good Hypothesis
Writing workshop: Objectivity
What I learned
For the card hypothesis you only need to flip the red and blue card
Looking for evidence to test the hypothesis
Need to be able to draw a conclusion from the evidence collected
Agendas always have a task attached/ assigned
Agendas pages are more reliable for course activities
The U.S government developed aid programs for the citizens of Rwanda (spend 1 million dollars on this program for 1000 people)- but is it worth it ?
Each person receives about 500 dollars from the program but if there was no program then they could give the Rwandan people 1000 dollars directly instead of wasting 500
But the problem is the government doesn’t trust the people will spend the 1000 dollars properly
Handel tested hypothesis of giving direct aid to the Rwandan citizens ( a pool of families from nearly 250 villages were selected based on typical criteria and randomly assigned to one of four groups)
The experiment found that the program met none of its main objectives
Teaching Rwandans about nutrition did not improve their nutrition or health
Neither did giving Rwandans the cash equivalent of the cost of the education program
When you prove something doesn’t work you add valuable knowledge to others
The success was proving that the plan didn’t work
The US gave about 500 million in aid to Guatemala and Honduras but then they froze the aid
The danger of testing the programs then they agency will spend less and less until they find a program that works
Proving anything is a success
Journalism is objective
There is a dead man lying on an empty street at china’s virus ground zero in which medical professionals wearing hazmat suits and gloves retrieve his body from the street. Other people were walking and riding by the dead body and not helping him. The dead man was wearing a mask. The guy on the bike doesn’t look at the dead body or the guy on the bike is looking at someone else walking by. It would be unfair to say that pedestrians are ignoring the body. The purpose of the video is to give us judgement and interpretation
Professor started off with a hypothesis example about cards and reminded us that our hypothesis’ will take much more work to be perfect. Had a discussion on a real world hypothesis that in ways makes sense and doesn’t make sense. Doing an experiment on real life people who have lived a certain way their whole life doesn’t mean they will change their ways just because you gave them money and tried explaining what is right/wrong. When making objections you basically have to go off of the headline and whats provided in the video or article to than make out what are the possibilities.
2/12
NOTES
Riddle
– Little card riddle to get the minds flowing
– You have to really understand the hypothesis then think if each card can really disprove your hypothesis, so therefore you have to flip any card that may affect your hypothesis
Hypothesis
– When gathering research for your hypothesis, your goal isn’t to find data to prove your hypothesis, but rather to analyze the data and come to a conclusion on your hypothesis
– The program USAID used an hypothesis that tested whether giving Rwanda families money or not would be effective on their nutrition and health
– They ran multiple trials to see if giving some families money would support their hypothesis of being healthier and have better nutrition, but they found out that it didn’t work
– The trials failed, but that doesn’t mean the hypothesis and their project failed as it just proves that giving the Rwanda families money would not improve their nutrition and health
– They determined that just giving families money is not the solution to the health issue and that they will not further that experiment of giving out money to these poor families
– There’s no such thing as a failed hypothesis. Failing a test or observation is only a win in the deciding factor of what to test next
Body On The Street
– We have to trust in the words written on the screen to determine our thought
– It hard to describe a scene without drawing conclusions and interpreting something
HW
– Catch up on anything not finished and any classwork not done
Feb. 12th Notes
-The card hypothesis helped to gain an understanding that you don’t prove the hypothesis, you instead analyze the data around that hypothesis and then draw conclusions based off of said data.
-Reminder to catch up on the tasks surrounding the hypothesis, the purposeful summaries, and to leave feedback on our peers chosen topic and hypothesis, giving constructive criticism to help them better their point and make their ending papers the best they can possibly be.
-Just because research around a hypothesis may fail, does not mean that the hypothesis is wrong. That failed trial is deemed a success as it shows what does not work and what eventually could end up working. Failing is all just part of the process, it aids in strengthening the research and allows someone to go back and either improve their hypothesis, or to go back and try something different, developing a new perspective possibly.
-Discussed as a class the topic of objectivity, trying to basically draw as few conclusions as possible while describing a situation. Describing things as we see it, trying not to puzzle piece things together and distort a situation to how we see it and not how it is presented. There are so many conclusions to draw from one single situation that so many conclusions could be drawn from so many different perspectives.
Class notes:
-riddle was very enlightening. I learned to read carefully and think about what i read before trying to solve the problem.
-people do not trust poor people to spend the money they give them to spend it wisely. There is a stigma that poor people are drug users or mentally ill.
-if the title was not on the video, you could have made your own interpretation on what happened
-we send journalists/ photographers places and get mad at them for getting the scenes and the stories
Today in class we gave Evan a wake-up call. We then proceeded to go over the card hypothesis to better understand what we need from our hypothesizes. The professor went over navigating the counterintuitive site to ensure we have all required tasks completed by Monday. The first major topic we covered was giving cash aid directly. We then commented on the effectiveness of the experiment involving direct cash aid. As we moved on, we saw a news reel of a dead man laying on an empty street with people in hazmat equipment examining him.
We learned more about necessary content for our hypothesizes. We also learned that the professor sometimes forgets to allow replies to webpages and that he carries out wake up calls as desired. It became apparent that USAID had not previously done satisfactory work determining the effectiveness of their aid programs. The news footage demonstrated the difficulty in being objective when prior information has been presented.
Did additional work with hypothesis to help understand how to get our hypothesis not so broad
Always check the tasks on the agenda pages and make sure that you are caught up- non portfolio tasks
Is it worth giving the people in Africa the money when we give them a $1000 but really it’s only $500
We gave the people in Rwanda money but the money we gave them went to paying their debts instead of helping their children. They did not help their children until we gave them more money
Proving anything even if the study didn’t go as planned is a success because you did prove something in the end
Journalism can be very objective
2/12/20- Today in class we started with a riddle about cards where the hypothesis was all cards with vowels have even numbers on the other side. We then had to argue which cards you had to flip over to prove this hypothesis, the correct answer was the red E and blue 3 cards. We had housekeeping that said to remind professor when he forgets to make a reply section on a page, told us where to find tasks when we miss class, and how agenda pages not the course outline, is a better way to find what we did on a particular day. On a lecture today we talked about an illustrated good hypothesis, the story we used was about an economist who moved to Rwanda when he heard about a charity that was testing a bold idea. They ran the test by just giving the poor people $1000 instead of helping them. Daniel wanted to run how own experiment where 250 villagers were picked; the control group received none, some received just hygiene and nutrition help, the third group was given small grants equal to the price it cost to receive the hygiene program $114, the last group each got $500. The government published a statement about what they did for health and hygiene, the group was upset because they had felt like they failed because that was not the point of their program. They complained that the U.S. government doesn’t make sure that their aid programs will actually work. They said the villagers who received $114 spent it all on paying their debt and it remains unanswered if the USAID is going to change its nutrition efforts. The problem here is that the government keeps running tests in poor places with less and less money every time they don’t work, hurting the Rwanda people and other poor countries who were picked to take part in these studies. We then replied with what we think about this article in the reply box below it. We then watched a video on a reporter dying in China and then drawing as few objective conclusions as possible. My conclusion would’ve been this, “A man was found lying in the streets of China was approached by two men in hazmat suits and then wrapped up in bags and put into a van to be taken away.”
It is hard to be objective because inferring the wrong information can lead to the wrong things
-card riddle answer would be red and blue
-all tasks will be on the agenda page as well
-people prejudge others who are receiving money by not trusting them to make the right choices with money donated to them
-rather than giving poor people money, donors like to set up programs that will help them live a better life
-the test with the Rwandans showed that the program and $114 didn’t improve their lives
-when you can prove something doesn’t work, you are adding to human knowledge so they know not to do that again
-there is no such thing as failing when trying to prove a hypothesis right, there’s just room for improvement
-it’s very difficult to describe a scene without being objective
-It is very easy to be objective because everyone has their own way of seeing things and if you don’t be objective, there won’t be much of a story
-Card hypothesis-do the cards with a vowel contain an even number on the back
-Where to find assignment
-program was a failure but the test wasn’t
-we watched a video on the corona virus ground zero and tried to describe it from a news perspective
-People received more benefit when money was just given to me them instead of money spent on a program meant to benefit.
-Even if something fails it is not a waste of time because now you know that does not work.
-In the body of the street I believe when talking about it we must be as factual as possible. Even though we have to infer some things we must try to stay to facts to convey news.
Just giving people money wouldn’t be the smartest idea because it wouldn’t be teaching them how to be useful in the long run, but it will definitely test the hypothesis. Even though the test seemed like it failed because it met none of its main objectives, it truly did not fail because it reached end results and proved that the hypothesis did not work. This way, the creators of the hypothesis know whether to stop trying to prove their point. Proving anything qualifies as a success.
The primary point of an exercise like the “dead man on the street” is to find the objective with just the judgement we come up with, without hearing any conversation, without asking any questions. The likelihood that we can be objective is making sense of something by just our judgements, even if it is accurate or not.
NOTES:
Card Hypothesis:
Testing Hypothesis – Every card that has a vowel on one side has an even number on the other side.
– Which cards must we turn over to test this theory?
– We only need to turn over Red and Blue because they are the only ones that can disprove the hypothesis.
– It is important know what effects the hypothesis and what does not effect it because that can help or confuse the hypothesis.
A Good Hypothesis:
– The program failed, but did the test fail? No.
– The test showed evidence that the program is a failure, so the test was successful.
– Proving anything from the hypothesis is a success.
– A good hypothesis does not have an ultimatum. (It fails or it doesn’t)
– A good hypothesis can get results in anyway that the hypothesis can go.
Objectivity:
– We rely on the news interpretation when watching a video. What would we think if that wasn’t there?
– The scene is constantly changing without explanation so we have to decided why what is being showed is happening. For example, why are there three different colors of hazmat suits? Was the man dead in the first place or was he still alive before they pronounced him dead?
– The likelihood that we can be objective with the “Body on the Street” video is unlikely. There are a lot of possibilities and stories that could go to the video clips and it would be hard not be biased about the situation.
– We first went over which cards needed to be flipped over in order to find out if Vowel cards truly are associated with even numbers. The answer was Red and Blue.
-We did an activity to show how we can be objective towards the coronavirus in China
When something does not go as planned, it is not a failure because you now know that what you were trying to see does not work so you have learned something.
We must stick to the facts when it comes to the body in the street of China
Class Notes 2/12/20
– Solved the card riddle
– Housekeeping
– Talked about Kenya and how some Kenyans were given money and free will to spend it
– We described a coronavirus news outtake in the most objective way possible.
– we watched a news video addressing the coronavirus and tried to do some objective writing on it
What I learned:
– You must “fine-tune” your hypothesis in order to make a set claim, you have to be specific about – – what you’re saying is true.
– how to find your posts in one place by clicking on your avatar name
– how even though your hypothesis was proven wrong, it is still progressing in the right direction to finding the true answer to the question you’re trying to answer.
– It is very hard to be objective without trying to create a story and fill in the missing pieces throughout what we see. There are a lot of assumptions that have to be made in order to make up assumptions of what’s happening even when most of those assumptions could be wrong
Today’s class has turned into a scientific logic class. With today’s riddle, we were shown four cards and had to pick what cards to turn over to prove the hypothesis. I did not expect the outcome, being red and blue, to be correct. The hypothesis was taken literally. The hypothesis specifically stated if cards with vowels on it had even numbers on the other side, so it doesn’t matter if the card with a G on it has an even or odd number. We don’t know if it has an even number, so it is irrelevant. I did not expect that. We discussed an article in class about the United States sending aid to Rwanda. This organization spent a lot of money, but the economic benefit was about half of what was spent. Through these programs, the benefits were only half of what was put in. The group decided to just give people the money in an experiment. The tabulated results showed that all options failed. Helping people through programs did not do much, giving money didn’t do much, doing nothing did exactly that, etc. The test was a success by supplying results, but the goal, being aiding these people, was not met. What would normally seem like a failure to most, since the goal was not met, was a success, since the hypothesis, being the programs and tests, gave accurate results. Now that the organization knows these programs don’t work, they can stop doing that. Separating the desired result and the hypothesis by itself is key here.
Man on street: There are some things that can be proven. The woman in red was near the scene, as we have seen. A medical vehicle appeared. (it looks like an ambulance and I’m sure the writing on the side read accordingly) People in multiple colors of protective suits appear and cover the body of the incapacitated person who is assumed to be a man.
Notes 2/12
Housekeeping
– Tasks can always be found under the Non-Portfolio or Portfolio menus.
– Agenda pages (not Course Outline) are the reliable sources of scheduled classroom activities.
A Good Hypothesis Described
– Essay writing is like the scientific method, for testing hypotheses with experiments, not prove preconceptions.
– Analyze data and draw conclusions (not prove hypothesis) is the last step.
A Good Hypothesis Illustrated
– The USAID tested the theory that direct aid to the poor would be more helpful than teaching them about nutrition on the theory that the poor know what to do with money but simply lack the resources.
– The underlying stereotype was that poor people cannot be trusted with money.
– The hypothesis was proven to be true in an experiment in which some poor people received direct aid while others received the nutrition programs; engineering nutrition programs did little to help the poor. Giving direct aid in the form of money, however, had some positive effect.
– What’s to be learned here? An experiment that proved the opposite of what people were expecting/hoping for was successful, despite the attitudes of those who created the nutrition programs. As long as the experiment was accurate and you learned something, it should never be considered a failure.
Objectivity
– It’s extremely difficult, if not impossible, to be completely objective in journalism.
– A look at a news video depicting an unconscious man in China illustrates this; the reporters assume a man lying on the ground is dead, most likely from the coronavirus, when that may not be the case.
– There are few people around, and the few people who are around seemingly ignore the unconscious man. Due to the lack of sufficient context, however, one may assume that no one cares about him or that this kind of event is normal to the people of China.
– There are too many questions and too little context to be found in this video for objective reporting to be easy or even possible.